WHO WILL WIN ? – mediakajianstrategisindonesiaglobal.com

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The presidential election debate can influence undecided voters, but it is unlikely to change the minds of those who have thrown support behind Joko “Jokowi” Widodo or Prabowo Subianto, an analyst with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests. As the camps of the two presidential candidates gear up for the upcoming first debate, CSIS political analyst Arya Fernandes said that the debates may not significantly change the stance of most voters who have decided on their choice in the 2019 elections.

A recent survey by Jakarta-based pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia revealed that of the 192 million eligible voters set to cast their votes on April 17, at least 25 percent were undecided or swing voters.

The Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin and rival Prabowo-Sandiaga Uno tickets have admitted that the debate would be critical for them to attract swing voters, which many have said are the segment of voters who will decide the outcome of the election. The candidates’ performance during the presidential debate would be the key to winning the hearts of undecided voters, meaning that they have to articulate their ideas with the right delivery and provide substantial information on their programs.

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The presidential election in April looks like a rematch of the 2014 encounter with the same two candidates bidding for the right to lead Indonesia for the next five years. Although the race may produce the same results, the dynamics have changed, making this a very different contest.

Most surveys show incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo leading by a large margin over challenger Prabowo Subianto. But Jokowi’s victory is not a foregone conclusion. The chief lesson of the 2016 American presidential race and the Brexit vote in Britain is that surveys can and do get it wrong. We can throw in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial race when then-incumbent Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama lost the election despite enjoying a comfortable lead. This is a different race altogether that requires both candidates to approach it differently. This is a battle between an incumbent and challenger. In 2014, both Jokowi and Prabowo entered the race as equals, both offering promises for what they would do if elected.

Jokowi comes into the race backed by nine political parties, including the two largest winners in 2014, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Golkar, and two Islamist parties, the United Development Party (PPP) and National Awakening Party (PKB). Prabowo has a smaller coalition of six parties, including his own Gerindra, Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party and two Islamist parties, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and National Mandate Party (PAN). In 2014, Jokowi only had four parties behind him, and Prabowo had six, including Golkar and the PPP. Their choice of running mates makes 2019 a vastly different race.

With Islam no longer a major factor in the presidential race, the economy has become the main campaign issue, with Jokowi defending his economic record and Prabowo picking and exposing the shortcomings. Growth has held steady in the last five years, but the economic performance was not exactly stellar. Averaging 5 percent, it falls short of the 7 percent Jokowi promised in 2014. He remains vulnerable to attack, particularly on the trade and budge deficits, wealth gap, weak rupiah, joblessness among the educated elite and prices of basic foodstuffs.

Another big difference in 2019 is the simultaneous presidential and legislative elections on April 17. In the past, the legislative elections preceded the presidential race by three months, giving voters the luxury of voting for one political party, but a presidential candidate from another party. With the simultaneous elections, voters go to the polling booth with a different mindset. This affects more the legislative election than the presidential race. The next president, whoever that may be, will likely need to manage a smaller coalition in governing the country. Simpler, but not necessarily easier.

Anggun Wulandari, political and business consultant in Jakarta said it is difficult to predict who will win the next presidential election, because both of two camps based on their first round president candidates debate did not given “smart answer” which could make swing voters and undecided voters to change their choise when they stay in box voting. (Red)

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